The "Trading Chaos" book by B. Williams is the classic edition, with the terms of the technical analysis to Forex. It 'very interesting, not only to me but to millions of admirers B. Williams' s all over the world. From the perspective of me as a professional, this book is so popular because, asWilliams has tried to do the following:
Conflagration
1 The Forex market is available as a chaotic system, the use of chaos theory.
Forex Secrets - The development strategy of "anti-chaos" and the tactics of trading in the forex market (Part I)
2 To illustrate his vision of the logic of moving parts in this mess: a) the strategy (Elliott wave theory), b) the method (the fractal analysis, the use of fractals and the "key factor" - ie, financial and economic instruments.
Conflagration
3 To send five levels of professional development for each operator. Each of these levels is clearlydescribed and specified - as well as the objectives and means, the dealer can be obtained at any level.
In particular, the following chapters of the book in question, dedicated to the topics listed below:
Chapter 6 The first level - a rookie trader.
Chapter 7 The second level - advanced beginner.
Chapter 9 The third level - a dealer responsible.
Chapter 11 The fourth plane - an intelligent (trade)Dealers.
Chapter 12 The fifth level - a merchant specialist.
4 B. Williams also lists five "areas", the "kill" the trend, that can its turning points (landmarks). Starting from these points it is possible to develop new strategies and tactics of labor within the trend.
5 B. Williams also recommends that a business plan. This "checklist", you must clearly specify "the pace of work", the signals from the "thumb" has been open about the business, "stop loss"Flat, padded cushions (pillows suspension), etc.
6 claimed as a psychotherapist and professional traders Williams: practical advice for beginners and experts (responsible) retailers - see Chapters 11 and 12 of "Trading Chaos" The essence of his attitude towards the main dealer psychological problems about being written as the following, which .. learn to integrate them into the basic structure of the market and get in touch with the market through the implementation of ourPrejudices and the development of our individual trading programs. It is advisable to compare this approach with a view of other analysts'. These "experts" trying to make money on the forex market, rather than incompetent (see Chapter 23, dealing with psychological problems traders' while working on the Forex and the manner of their "healing occurs").
7 See "New Dimensions in barter trade" - as a logical continuation of "Trading Chaos" B. Williams has written a book. In this book,The author presents his approach to business - the unit, ie profit "web".
The indicators (AO, AC, and alligator) introduced. Now they are considered mandatory) component of the majority of forex trading systems.
° he tries to "give (detect) all signals in the market" and offers open at the time, these signals coincide at the same time, which must be confirmed by various indicators.
I want to congratulate B. Williams for his supportResults and contribution to the theory of forex, but for "a stop to it." Several years ago I started on some aspects of the theory of William B. 'Knows how to think. In other words, it was usually 95-97% of Forex traders, before the release of "Trade Chaos 1, -2" and "New Dimensions" lost. At the same time, despite all the achievements and discoveries of B. Williams, the number of dealers and losers remains the same even after changing these books.
This circumstance forced me to questionMany position William B. 'S more impartially and in detail. I reconsidered my views on Forex trading Cardinal.
As I see it, we must clearly distinguish the domains in which the techniques that are considered by William B. 'If and where other authors do not work, but only accelerate the loss of money from a merchant. Only after you have learned to recognize this boundary is the development of its trading system that will bring profits in forex.
Also, try to domy opinions on the forex market. On the basis of the theory, I make a transition to their practical application. In this way you can understand the logic of the forex currency market movement torque. Therefore, this approach helps us to follow a general pattern of opening and closing operations of the Forex.
Changes in the forex market. FOREX controllable system instead of the market chaos and its consequences for retailers WORK
Forex previously was a chaotic market. B. Williams triesElements are one of the use of chaos theory. Currently the system is "trying to hide its objectives and plans" with the help of a character apparently chaotic movements in this market.
Consortium which is the main conclusion is that a professional after reading this chapter, the following. This market has ceased to be spontaneous. Now it is organized and controlled. Currently, the volume of transactions, dealers have stopped open the enormous influence.Some people "push" of interest of one currency against this or that direction has become much more important. Often this interest is to capture an N-volume of transactions and a number of orders retailers. The primary objective was to go back on all currency pairs in the opposite direction. Therefore, money is often "moved" by the news of the band, and common sense. The diagrams in the April 1, 2005 perfectly illustrate this trend. I hope everyone sees that these graphs areMake exceptions, but do not confirm the rules of forex.
Therefore, the technique of working on the Forex, one of which classicists who traded with the market is written spontaneous, more and more of the currency in real terms (true) quotes separately. It 'must remember that coincide with the direction of the spontaneous market trends and their intensity with the volume of trading. Currently, the forex market is changing in its nature. It is now led by a special interestGrouping, but not by natural forces. This group writes a currency quotations, we in the market. She is willing to reverse the currency pairs against each volume of orders at the dealership.
The reader may remember their ideas A. Elder 's most important - is the author of technical analysis classic bag, a trader and the professional psychotherapist. He notes that the market will be driven by a crowd (herd), which opens up the race in one direction. Consequently, theCommercial training.
And 'when we are justified by the market chaos.
But what happens in the forex market at the moment?
Let's return to turnaround USD return the type of "bear" in a "bull".
The diagrams in the April 1, 2005 are presented below.
Diagram 8.1. EUR / USD movement (for picture see notes at the end of article)
Diagram 8.2. GBP / USD movement. (For pictures, see notes at end of article)
Let's look at the GBP / USD pairBehavior in a first edition of April 2005, data on positive and negative GBP U.S. economy. In March, the UK CIPS index of 52.0 (the previous value had been covered from 51.8 to 51.6 below). In New York, has increased the oil price of $ 2.40 - $ 57.70 per barrel up a. It 'was a new record high price in 21 years. In March, the U.S. non-farm wages were minimal in July last year. Its previous value was revisedtowards its reduction. Michigan sentiment index was 92.6 in March (the forecast had been 92.9 - coincided with the previous value). U.S. indexes all fell.
I hope you were on trust, which at the same time all other currency pairs for the benefit of the rate USD rises against other currencies to take national adapted. Those who can not believe it - this data is public and open for general use.
One might ask.
1 Traders can open all over the worldTransactions in USD trend "bear" almost immediately (M1 to H4 and D1). That is, provided the release of negative news on the U.S. economy, dealers all started simultaneously in order to buy dollars and sell all national currencies. Consequently, the USD exchange rate began to sky-rocket. Of course, this situation contradicts the messages that logic and common sense.
2 You should pay attention to the synchronous nature of the movement of all pairs of currencies. The time difference makes aFraction of a second to one minute.
The diagrams April 29, 2005 to serve another example.
Diagram 8.3. EUR / USD pair movement (for images see notes at the end of article)
Diagram 8.4. GBP / USD movement (for picture see notes at the end of article)
Analysts draw our attention to the following facts. In European Session EUR / USD rate was increased torque to the point 1.2976. He fell in the session of the United States at 1.2852, slightly to begin April 15. The rate offell more than 120 points. Analysts point out that levels are elevated by several other U.S. indices (ICPD and Chicago PMI) USD exchange rate.
In the United States in March personal income index +0.5%. At the same time, the expected +0.4%, which coincided with the previous value was. In the United States in March index of personal spending in 0.6%. The forecast and the previous value was +0.5% and +0.7%. Chicago PMI 65.6 in April did. The prognosis waswere 63.0, while the forecast and the previous value was 63.0 and 69.2, respectively, were.
As a result of this second inversion "case" of currencies, amounted to USD trend changed in the H4 - from April to September 2005 - so for a year and a half (at least when his chapter was written).
As a result of this reversal, the national currencies were devalued against the dollar. The corresponding indicators (indicators) are as follows:
· Eurodecreased by 1100 points (from 1.2972 to 1.1865);
· GBP fell to 1900 points (from 1.9164 to 1.7271);
· CHF fell by 1600 points (from 1.1882 to 1.3484);
· AUD fell nearly 500 points (from 1.7844 to 1.7365).
This is an absurd joke, right?
This means that if the trend in sync in terms of all national currencies with 1000-1900 points for a year and a half only for the following events canceled in the United States in March 2005:
-Chicago PMI index was +0.5% instead of +0.4%;
- Personal expenses made index +0.6% +0.7% instead of the previous value.
These events were encouraged by the willingness of dealers' and expectations? This means looking at the same time, like all traders were staking out the wrong time and time again for a year and a half!
Giving the analysis to all the events of these two days, you can see a surprising alternative:
1 Either we accept the possibility that it is absurd, "a world, there arePlot of dealers "- the big players in Forex" included. That is, the dealer can always act in synchrony, while the national banks of countries keep the remaining strangely passive.
2 Otherwise, based on hundreds of thousands of these and similar examples, we must admit that Forex is not spontaneous, unpredictable and chaotic market, not more. It is now replaced by a market controlled by someone. In relation to the Financial Times and the "profiteer currency (speculator)," this magazinegroup (the organizer of the Forex) is called the "Consortium". The following will also use this term. Consortium is capable of the following:
a). in a fraction of a second to the trendiest dollars from a thousand points in relation to all the national currencies of the world to repent;
b). not any possibility of domestic banks in all countries of the world, the steep descent (or ascent) to prevent the national exchange rate against USD. Surely it is conceivable that national banksclosely with this consortium. But in this context, another important statement. That is, the reversal rate is simultaneously compared to USD exchange rates of national currencies. Yet it seems doubtful that this day needs of all national banks "suddenly fell with the aim of the consortium is probably a different situation realistically, at least part of the banks were forced to obey Resolution Consortium -.. That is, a tendency to turn to USDagainst other currencies, including his own.
This creates a completely different model. You should not follow "the people" ("The Flock"), trading volume and orders moved to Forex. Giving the analysis of a number of factors (including the volume of trade), it is necessary for the interests and objectives of those who understand to give quotes on Forex. Our goal is to "trade with these people." Very often it is against the "crowd" and "volume" of open transactionsDealer. And 'the example of the rankings at first appear in April 2005.
Let us dwell on the difference between the objectives of the organizers and participants of the joint financial games.
Imagine being in the position of an organizer of the financial game, including the game "Forex". In the role of organizer, first you must provide your goals and principles that govern than those of other participants in this "game".
1 For the organizer of the game is to make a profitregular and stable.
2 To this end, the organizers tried to set the rules of the game easier and more "impartial" as possible. His goal is to attract this game for all other participants. In this way, organizer stores a large audience of players, regardless of their age, profession and other differences between them.
And now you should look at the known issues at this point.
a). The fundamental and technical analysis, the army of economists and analystsother "specialists" who teach all participants in the Forex business, "like everyone else".
b). The classic version of the notions of support and resistance levels (indicators, consultants, etc.), for the placement of all orders and stop-loss suspended provided roughly the same places.
c). A wealth of information and factors that influence the behavior of the quote currency. As a result, one can easily explain the movement of a currency pair in any way you like - but these statementspresented after the fact.
In the event of a logic error in the "impartiality" of the movement of currency pair after the declaration of the output messages are "foul (illegal)" methods are always "on duty". It 'just not possible to refute this thesis! There are examples: "The market is unpredictable," "money has already finished" work for "the message data before its publication," "The participants have a high index negative values, which manifests itself certainly noticedFuture, "" An unknown Clearing Bank has placed an order for the purchase of a particular currency in a great deal - on condition of '"bear" trend (if all the dealers use to "sell") ", etc. You can try the opposite? Surely you can not.
It is advisable to compare the behavior of currency markets spontaneous and controlled to the condition of force majeure.
Only the factor of force main organizer is completely unpredictable. These circumstances clearly show the difference impartial andbetween the spontaneous and organized (controlled) markets.
In each area, the ends always play the role of the moment of absolute truth. That is, these extreme situations illustrate the strengths and weaknesses of each system. It refers to the behavior of politicians during critical periods in a state in order to make the first court structures and the situation on the foreign exchange market may force majeure.
The episode # 1 The circumstances of force majeure in the United States September 11, 2001. It 's theDifference in the behavior of financial markets spontaneous and controlled.
Diagram 8.5. EUR / USD pair movement (for images see notes at the end of article)
Diagram 8.6. GBP / USD movement (for picture see notes at the end of article)
The results of Forex trading to September 11, 2001 (Forex Ltd.) are as follows. The dollar was flat against major currencies. EURO / USD exchange rate by more than 200 points (from 0.8965 to0.99167). GBP / USD rate of more than 210 points (from 1.4559 to 1.4773). USD / JPY fell nearly 330 points (from 121.84 to 118.58).
The reason for the decrease of USD terrorist attacks in New York and Washington state. According to news agencies had jacked planes were terrorists. These have been the commercial center of New York and the Department of Defense (Pentagon) in Washington were. The aircraft had crashed, causing the nextFire and the collapse of two skyscrapers Trade Center. As a result, trading on the New York Stock Exchange does not take place that day. It has not been suspended for a specified period.
The events in the United States, has created a dramatic enhancement of the exchange rate of CHF. In the American session USD / CHF exchange rate has fallen from more than 530 points (from 1.6895 to 1.6365). EUR / CHF exchange rate fell by more than 200 points and fell below the level of the strong psychological support - 1.5 CHF for 1 Euro -the point of 1.4950. The fact is that the savings of CHF (healing) in different conditions of currency crises in the world. As a result, investors were worried, buy the largest number of CHF in such a situation of uncertainty that led to the act of terrorism in the United States.
Do you understand? Panic conquered the whole world - in the first place, the United States itself. At the same time, the dollar exchange rate has fallen compared to
- EURO 2%;
- GBP 1.47%;
- The yen by 2.7%.
Now we want to determine thereal decline of the USD exchange rate around the world. As a starting point, we take special resolution of the National Bank of Ukraine.
The Board of Directors may take the National Bank of Ukraine to the resolution, in accordance with the National Bank of Ukraine to solve a series without taking into account the demand and supply. After the terrorist attack in the United States on September 11 raided a currency exchange centers in Ukraine ea 5.25 purchase price of USD 3.0 to 2.5 hrivna (Ukrainian national currency) to $ 1. USDSell the report was obtained at 5, 35 hrivna for $ 1. National Bank of Ukraine set to USD exchange rate was not different from the official exchange rate more than 10%. Only after the threat, the license for the cash currency market (funds available) to delete the job, the centers of exchange for the purchase of USD in cash back to the proposition that the 11th was the first of September 2001.
That is, in contrast to the taxable market reacted spontaneouslya day of violence since the fall greater than twice the Sept. 11 exchange rate of U.S. dollar and much more!
So the difference between the reactions of spontaneous and controlled exchange currency markets and 50 times more.
It 'a coincidence? So it seems that the dealer that day, all other things, the decision of dollars - so that in their stores, not to gamble on falling prices in U.S. dollars? Or, perhaps, bought from USD against other currencies, not knowing,if the U.S. economy maintains leadership positions in the world, or with underdeveloped countries (such as Ukraine) level. Is it possible? Can you imagine what would happen if another plane or two nuclear power reactors were decreased in the U.S. so that most of America would have done in the "zone of Chernobyl"!
See the continuation of this article in the name Forex Secrets - The development strategy of "anti-chaos" and tactical trading in the forex market (Part II)
Note:Full text of this article and photos of examples of articles
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Forex Secrets - The development strategy of "anti-chaos" and the tactics of trading in the forex market (Part I)
